While some cities in the Carolinas will see employment return to pre-recession levels within the next year, others will have to wait a few years or even longer, according to a study prepared for the recent annual meeting of the U.S. Conference of Mayors.
The study by IHS Global Insight research firm, which analyzed economic conditions in 363 of the nation’s metro areas, projects overall employment in the United States will return to pre-recession peak levels in 2014.
IHS forecasts employment recovery will come sooner to some Carolina metro areas, including Durham-Chapel Hill, forecasted to lead the region with employment returning to pre-recession peak levels by the third quarter of this year. Durham-Chapel Hill, one of only 12 metro areas expected to regain peak employment in 2011, is followed in the Carolinas by Raleigh and Charleston, S.C., both of which are forecasted to recover by the fourth quarter of 2012.
Myrtle Beach was next with recovery coming by the first quarter of 2013, followed by Charlotte and Columbia, S.C., in the third quarter of 2013. The study forecasts other cities in the region, including even Atlanta (first quarter 2014), will have to wait longer to see employment return to pre-recession levels.
Greenville, S.C., is estimated to regain peak employment in the third quarter of 2014, nearly matching the nation’s forecasted recovery, while Asheville, N.C., is forecasted to recover by the first quarter of 2015 and Spartanburg in the second quarter of 2016. Hickory is expected to be the last metro area in the Carolinas to return to peak employment, waiting until after 2025, according to IHS.
In nearly every city in the Carolinas, the change in employment is expected to turn from negative to positive by this year. For instance, IHS estimates annual employment growth will change in Greenville, S.C., from -6.8 percent in 2009 to 1.3 percent this year, and then rise to 2.4 percent in 2012 and 2.6 percent in 2013.
Between 2009 and 2014, Charleston, S.C., Raleigh, Durham-Chapel Hill and Charlotte are expected to see the highest average employment growth rates in the region. Charleston is forecasted to average 2.3 percent annual employment growth, followed by Raleigh at 2.2 percent and Durham-Chapel Hill and Charlotte at 2.1 percent.
Asheville and Spartanburg are both expected to recover at a slower pace, with average employment growth rates of 1.2 and 1.3 percent, respectively, over the same five-year period. Asheville’s unemployment rate is expected to fall from 9.5 percent in 2009 to 6.2 percent in 2014, while Spartanburg’s unemployment is expected to drop from 13.1 percent to 9.6 percent.
Mark Vitner, a Wells Fargo & Co. economist who recently provided a regional economic forecast of his own, said he agrees some cities in the Carolinas will recover sooner than many other areas of the country, partly because they are experiencing faster population growth. However, he said he believes the IHS forecasts are “a little aggressive,” and it actually may take a year or so longer than what IHS predicts before the nation’s economy fully recovers.
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In its annual ranking of the best states for business, CNBC put North Carolina third on the list for 2011, trailing only Virginia and Texas.
North Carolina was among the top 10 states in three of the 10 categories analyzed by CNBC. The Tarheel state was ranked third in both the workforce and infrastructure/transportation categories and ninth for cost of business.
North Carolina’s lowest rankings came in the economy (41st) and quality of life (33rd) categories. Other categories analyzed in the ranking include access to capital, business friendliness, cost of living, education and technology/innovation. The top ranking for North Carolina comes after it was ranked by “Site Selection” magazine last fall as the top state in the nation for business climate for the sixth straight year.
South Carolina, which came in ninth in the “Site Selection” ranking, did not fare as well on the CNBC list, coming in 37th overall. South Carolina had its lowest ranking in the Economy category (49th), and its highest ranking in Workforce (6th).
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Buncombe County commissioners voted unanimously this week to purchase the former Volvo Construction plant in Skyland, N.C. The county will pay $7 million for the 405,108-square-foot facility that it hopes will draw a new manufacturer to the area.
The county has recently discussed in closed session an opportunity to lure a company that will create 400 jobs and invest $125 million, but the identity of the company has not been revealed.
Kit Cramer, president and CEO of the Asheville Area Chamber of Commerce, said he expects there will be “big (economic development) news” to share at next week’s annual chamber meeting.
Volvo shut down operations at the Skyland plant on Hendersonville Road early last year, taking away 228 jobs.
Buncombe County plans to borrow money for the Volvo plant purchase, which county officials said may be the largest real estate deal ever for the county.
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Western North Carolina is the top region in the state for developing renewable energy capacity, according to the 2011 North Carolina Clean Energy Data Book.
The report, released by the nonprofit N.C. Sustainable Energy Association, found that Western North Carolina is a top area for wind, solar and hydroelectric power. The 31-county WNC region also ranked high for the number of builders for energy-efficient homes and the number of renewable energy systems.
Matt Baker of AdvantageGreen, the green jobs division of AdvantageWest Economic Development Group, noted that WNC has more green energy companies per capita than the Research Triangle of Raleigh.
According to the report, WNC has 400 renewable energy and energy-efficiency firms, including 213 in Buncombe County, considered to be the largest renewable energy industry cluster in the state.
Baker said the report shows renewable energy has been one of the few growth industries during a slow economy and its cost competitive with nonrenewable energy sources, such as coal and oil.
Information in the 2011 N.C. Clean Energy Data Book will help support the WNC Clean Energy Economy Project, said Baker. The project, a collaboration between the Land-of-Sky Regional Council, AdvantageWest and five regional councils of government in the western part of the state, is focusing on ways to grow the region’s green energy business, including sustainable building, energy efficiency, low-emission vehicles and renewable energy.
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North Carolina had its lowest crime rate in 33 years in 2010, according to figures announced by state Attorney General Roy Cooper this week.
Cooper said the state’s crime rate fell 5.6 percent last year compared to 2009. Violent crime was down even more, dropping 10.2 percent from the previous year. While the overall crime rate is the lowest since 1977, the murder rate was the lowest since the state began tracking crime in 1973.
Last year was the third straight year the crime rate declined in the state. Property crime was down 12.5 percent, and violent crime dropped significantly in each category, including robberies (down 19.4 percent), rapes (down 14.3 percent) and murders (down 7.3 percent).
Cooper said law enforcement training, updated technology and prevention efforts helped contribute to the declines. He cautioned that the new budget approved by the N.C. General Assembly threatens to stall that progress by cutting funds for public safety programs. The budget decreased funding for the State Bureau of Investigation and the Justice Academy by 9 percent. The budget also eliminated state funding for drug treatment courts, and the State Highway Patrol, which could see layoffs, is expected to lose $20 million in funding over two years.
State Senator Harry Brown (R-Jacksonville), who is co-chair of the appropriations committee on justice and public safety, said legislators did not want to reduce funding for public safety programs, but they had to balance the budget. He said he hopes the programs will be restored once the economy improves.
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Asheville City school board voted to add three days to the next school year, two less than what the N.C. General Assembly required in new legislation.
The Asheville city school district plans to seek a waiver from the state to use the two other days for teacher training rather than classroom instruction. The waiver, if approved, can only be used for one school year.
The N.C. legislature has mandated that all school systems in the state move to a 185-day school year in the 2012-13 year. The change was made to bring the state’s school calendar more in line with countries where students attend school for 220 days or more each year.
Asheville City school board members also discussed the possibility of adding 30 minutes to each school day for elementary school students and 15 minutes for middle and high school students, but decided to study the idea further. Surveys offered by the district showed that a majority of teachers, teacher assistants and parents opposed the move to a longer school day.
Asheville City Schools Supt. Allen Johnson asked that the school system also begin exploring the possibility of moving to a year-round schedule, which he acknowledged would be “a major change” that should be studied thoroughly.
School administrators said the summer break, which often leaves at-risk students without access to educational opportunities, contributes to a wider achievement gap between high and low-performing students.
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Thanks to the arrival of low-cost carrier Southwest Airlines, passenger traffic at the Greenville-Spartanburg International Airport was up nearly 49 percent in May 2011 compared to May 2010.
The airport said Delta, which also contributed to the increase by switching to larger aircraft for some flights, was responsible for 31 percent of the passenger traffic in May, and Southwest accounted for 22 percent.
GSP Communications Vice President Manager Rosylin Weston said the public is responding to “lower fares, bigger jets and more destinations” offered at the airport now.
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Vision Airlines said it will eliminate its service from Greenville-Spartanburg International Airport to Destin-Fort Walton Beach, Fla., effective July 17. The low-cost carrier began service at the airport in March, but it said demand has not been sufficient to keep it going.
The carrier is also eliminating its service in Columbia, S.C., Huntsville, Ala., Savannah, Ga., and Baton Rouge, La. Passengers who booked flights after July 17 will have the option of taking a full refund or a ticket to a nearby city served by Vision.
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A new Blackbeard pirate exhibit is attracting many visitors to the North Carolina Maritime Museum in Beaufort, S.C.
The exhibit, which features artifacts from Blackbeard’s ship, the Queen Anne’s Revenge, was visited by more than 12,000 people in the first week since it opened. The exhibit includes more than 300 items, including many never publicly displayed, from the ship, which wrecked in about 20 feet of water off the coast of North Carolina.
The maritime museum said the permanent exhibit has drawn visitors from Great Britain, the Netherlands and Canada, along with 26 states in the United States.